How to Analyze a Flip Deal in 5 Minutes
You found a property. The listing looks promising. The neighborhood is trending up. Your contractor buddy says, "We could flip that." Great. But before you make an offer, you need five minutes and a calculator.
Here's how to break down a flip deal with real numbers so you know – before you spend a dime – whether it's worth pursuing.
The Property
A 3-bed, 2-bath single-family home listed at $145,000. It needs a new kitchen, updated bathrooms, paint, flooring, and some landscaping. Comparable properties in the neighborhood that have been renovated recently sold for $240,000–$260,000.
We'll use a conservative after-repair value (ARV) of $245,000. Always lean toward the lower end of your comp range. Optimism is expensive in this business.
Step 1: Estimate Your Rehab Costs
Walk the property with your contractor and get a line-item estimate. For this example:
| Item | Cost |
|---|---|
| Kitchen remodel | $15,000 |
| Two bathroom updates | $8,000 |
| Interior paint | $4,500 |
| Flooring (LVP throughout) | $6,500 |
| Landscaping and curb appeal | $3,000 |
| Permits and dumpster | $2,000 |
| Contingency (10%) | $3,900 |
Total rehab: $42,900
That 10% contingency isn't optional. Something will go wrong. A pipe will burst. You'll find termite damage behind a wall. Plan for it.
Step 2: Apply the 70% Rule
The 70% rule is your first gut check. Multiply the ARV by 0.70, then subtract your rehab costs. The result is the maximum you should pay for the property.
$245,000 x 0.70 = $171,500 $171,500 – $42,900 = $128,600 maximum purchase price
The property is listed at $145,000. That's above your ceiling. You'd need to negotiate it down, or the deal doesn't work under this rule. Let's say you offer $130,000 and the seller accepts. Now keep going.
Step 3: Calculate Your Total Investment
Your purchase price is only part of the equation. Here's what you're actually spending:
| Item | Cost |
|---|---|
| Purchase price | $130,000 |
| Closing costs (purchase) | $3,900 |
| Rehab | $42,900 |
| Hard money loan costs (3 points) | $3,900 |
Total cash needed upfront: approximately $180,700
If you're using a hard money loan at 80% of purchase price ($104,000), you'd need to bring around $76,700 of your own cash to the table, plus you'll be paying monthly interest on that loan.
Step 4: Add Holding Costs
This is where new flippers get burned. Every month you own the property, it costs you money.
Monthly holding costs for this deal:
- Hard money interest (12% on $104,000): ~$1,040/month
- Property taxes: ~$250/month
- Insurance (builder's risk): ~$150/month
- Utilities: ~$200/month
Total: roughly $1,640/month
If your rehab takes 3 months and the property sells in month 5, that's 5 months of holding at $1,640. That's $8,200 in costs you might not have budgeted.
Be honest about your timeline. If your contractor says 8 weeks, budget for 12. If you think the property will sell in 30 days, budget for 60.
Step 5: Account for Selling Costs
When you sell, you'll pay:
- Real estate agent commissions: 5–6% of sale price (~$13,475 at 5.5%)
- Seller closing costs: 1–2% (~$3,675 at 1.5%)
- Possible buyer concessions or repairs: $2,000–$5,000
Estimated selling costs: $19,150
The Final Math
Now add it all up:
| Sale price (ARV) | $245,000 |
| Minus purchase price | –$130,000 |
| Minus rehab | –$42,900 |
| Minus purchase closing costs | –$3,900 |
| Minus holding costs (5 months) | –$8,200 |
| Minus selling costs | –$19,150 |
| Minus loan costs | –$3,900 |
| Estimated profit | $36,950 |
On a total investment of around $180,700, that's about a 20% return over 5 months. Not bad. But notice how fast that profit shrinks if any single number moves against you: rehab goes $10,000 over budget, the property sits for an extra two months, or you sell for $230,000 instead of $245,000.
The Takeaway
A good flip deal isn't about finding a cheap house. It's about running the numbers honestly, including every cost, and making sure the profit margin survives reality.
Five minutes of math now can save you five months of regret.
Want to run your own deal? Plug your numbers into the [flip rehab calculator](/calculators/flip-rehab) and see exactly where you stand.